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Find some data set where conducting a time series analysis would be appropriate. Preferably the data set should be from your place of employment, but if this is not possible, then you may find any applicable data set on the internet. There is no minimum or maximum number of entries or variables that should be in the data, but the data should be complex enough that meaningful analysis can be conducted. For example, if the data is quarterly, having 16 quarters of data (4 years) should be sufficient for this exercise.
Use the tool of your choice to conduct your analysis, but Microsoft Excel is more than capable of doing this.
In a Word document, complete the following:
- Describe the data set (where you found it, what it means, etc.)
- Conduct a time series analysis
- You must use one of the following: moving average, exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, or Holt-Winters method
- Note: Moving average and exponential smoothing is the easiest (and sufficient for this exercise)
- Interpret the output
- Insert images of output into Word document and explain what it means both statistically and in layman’s terms.
Two pages double-spaced is sufficient. Include both your analysis and the data set in your submission. Click the Grading rubric link to see the criteria I will use to assess your work and to compare your work to the rubric before submitting it.
Answer them separately –
- Begin to understand the various approaches for constructing time-series models
- Determine how time-series analysis could be used in your organization
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