Case Study: “Assess The likelihood of An oil spill In The Arabian Gulf

“MODEL ANSWER A CAPSTONE: CASE STUDY ESSAY Assess the likelihood of an Iranian-backed cyber security threat to the water supply in Riyadh, and develop a plan for the Ministry of Interior that • responds to this threat by covering prevention, mitigation and response, • utilizes international best practices, and • is consistent with the ethical and legal responsibilities of security officers. Assessing the Threat There are two aspects to a standard threat assessment:

 

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likelihood and magnitude. Combined, these give a measure of risk, such that: Risk = Likelihood x Magnitude The first question is, what is the likelihood of an Iranian-backed cyber security attack on the water supply in Riyadh? This has several components. A first step in intelligence analysis is the collection of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT). According to a report by PWC, businesses in the Middle East are more vulnerable to cyber-attacks then those elsewhere, with 85 percent of respondents to a survey claiming they were victims of an attack (Witt, 2020). In addition, there have been at least eight attacks on Saudi Arabian assets backed by Iran since 2012, with a peak in 2016;

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